基于概率神经网络的地铁车站易损性分析

基于深度学习方法提出了一种地震响应概率模型，并基于此模型推导了地铁车站结构极限状态超越概率的计算公式，以评价结构的地震易损性。首先采用主成分分析对地震强度指标进行正交化和降维；为了克服传统地震响应概率模型中地震动强度指标与结构地震响应指标服从对数空间线性分布假设的局限性，基于BP神经网络建立趋势模型以预测结构的地震响应；基于概率神经网络建立误差模型以描述基于统计的趋势模型与基于物理机制的数值模型之间的误差，以拓展残差的齐次方差正态分布假设的严格限制。最后，以上海典型2层三跨地铁车站为算例，计算得到其易损性曲线。结果表明，基于深度学习建立的趋势模型较好地模拟了地铁车站结构地震响应随地震强度指标第一主成分的非线性变化特征；建立的误差模型准确地描述了趋势模型预测值的残差随地震强度指标第一主成分的方差非齐次特征。     

低氧LiF–NdF3熔盐体系阳极过程的电化学行为研究

The oxidation of oxygen ions and the generation of an anode effect at a low oxygen content of 150 mg/kg were discussed in this paper. Cyclic voltammetry and square-wave voltammetry tests were conducted to explore the anodic processes of LiF–NdF₃ melt after a lengthy period of pre-electrolysis purification at 1000°C (during which the oxygen content reduced from 413 to 150 mg/kg). The oxidation process of oxygen ions was found to have two stages: oxidation product adsorption and CO/CO₂ gas evolution. The adsorption stage was controlled by diffusion, whereas the gas evolution was controlled by the electrochemical reaction. In comparison with oxygen content of 413 mg/kg, the decrease in the amplitude of the current at low oxygen content of 150 mg/kg was much gentler during the forward scanning process when the anode effect occurred. Fluorine-ion oxidation peaks that occurred at about 4.2 V vs. Li/Li+ could be clearly observed in the reverse scanning processes, in which fluorine ions were oxidized and perfluorocarbons were produced, which resulted in an anode effect.     

Intermittent demand forecasting in the Enterprise: Empirical verification

Forecasting methods are often valued by means of simulation studies. For intermittent demand items there are often very few non–zero observations, so it is hard to check any assumptions, because statistical information is often too weak to determine, for example, distribution of a variable. Therefore, it seems important to verify the forecasting methods on the basis of real data. The main aim of the article is an empirical verification of several forecasting methods applicable in case of intermittent demand. Some items are sold only in specific subperiods (in given month in each year, for example), but most forecasting methods (such as Croston's method) give non–zero forecasts for all periods. For example, summer work clothes should have non–zero forecasts only for summer months and many methods will usually provide non–zero forecasts for all months under consideration. This was the motivation for proposing and testing a new forecasting technique which can be applicable to seasonal items. In the article six methods were applied to construct separate forecasting systems: Croston's, SBA (Syntetos–Boylan Approximation), TSB (Teunter, Syntetos, Babai), MA (Moving Average), SES (Simple Exponential Smoothing) and SESAP (Simple Exponential Smoothing for Analogous subPeriods). The latter method (SESAP) is an author's proposal dedicated for companies facing the problem of seasonal items. By analogous subperiods the same subperiods in each year are understood, for example, the same months in each year. A data set from the real company was used to apply all the above forecasting procedures. That data set contained monthly time series for about nine thousand products. The forecasts accuracy was tested by means of both parametric and non–parametric measures. The scaled mean and the scaled root mean squared error were used to check biasedness and efficiency. Also, the mean absolute scaled error and the shares of best forecasts were estimated. The general conclusion is that in the analyzed company a forecasting system should be based on two forecasting methods: TSB and SESAP, but the latter method should be applied only to seasonal items (products sold only in specific subperiods). It also turned out that Croston's and SBA methods work worse than much simpler methods, such as SES or MA. The presented analysis might be helpful for enterprises facing the problem of forecasting intermittent items (and seasonal intermittent items as well).     

门捷列夫的“旷缺”与中国公使的感叹

1869年门捷列夫完成了世界上第一张化学元素周期表,除了把当时所知的全部63种元素按原子量大小分组(族)排列外,还在表中留下一些空位,预言了与硼、铝、硅类似的元素的存在及其性质。随后的20多年内,这些空位相继被新发现的元素填补。1877年中国首任驻英公使郭嵩焘听到了门捷列夫的预言与元素镓的发现这一故事,联想到发现海王星的经过,由衷感叹西方科学的精致与功效。     

基于模糊认知图的物流需求预测模型研究

准确地预测社会物流需求,在政府对物流行业政策制定、企业物流活动规划中有着重要意义.本文提出一种基于模糊认知图的物流需求预测模型构建方法,综合考虑国内生产总值、进出口总额等五个经济要素与物流需求之间的相互影响关系,通过对历史数据机器学习获得相互影响权重,构建了物流需求预测模型,可对未来物流需求进行推算和预测.实验证明,该模型对物流需求的预测精度较高,效果较好.     

茯砖茶主要化学成分及其功效研究进展

茯砖茶属于黑茶中的珍贵品种,为后发酵茶,具有极特殊的发花工艺。其特别风味和保健功效深受消费者青睐。为茯砖茶得到更好地研究与开发,就茯砖茶所富含的茶多酚、茶多糖、氨基酸、咖啡碱等多种成分及其减肥降脂、降血糖、抗氧化等保健功效进行综述,同时探讨了目前茯砖茶研究过程中存在的问题,展望了茯砖茶未来的发展前景,对茯砖茶的进一步加工利用奠定了基础。     

基于Unity 3D的多机协同化纤长丝生产线工艺仿真

将化纤长丝生产线按功能特点分成生产、检测、包装和仓储4个子系统,基于Unity 3D分别在4台电脑上进行协同仿真和显示。生产子系统使用数据化驱动可以仿真任意生产规模的场景,检测子系统与智能检测模块联合可以仿真基于视觉处理的真实生产线产品质量检测,包装子系统可以对质量合格的丝饼按规格打包,仓储子系统根据订单需求对已打包的丝饼进行存储并完成进出库操作。对各子系统需要通信的数据制定了协议,使用基于TCP/IP(transmission control protocol/internet protocol)的Socket通信完成多台电脑协同仿真。试验表明,多机协同仿真可以更高效地设计和优化化纤长丝生产线。     

化学科技查新中的前沿领域及检索策略探讨

科技查新是通过检索科技文献和对比分析对科技项目的新颖程度做出判断的信息咨询活动和文献查证工作。介绍了化学科技查新中的前沿领域，以外文数据库SciFinder Scholar为例，进行了检索策略的探讨。     

化工设备使用与保养技术分析

化工行业是我国工业发展的重要组成部分,是我国重要的产业类型。化工设备安全平稳运行是保证企业完成生产任务的重要因素,也是保证企业安全生产和利益最大化的基础。本文对化工设备产生故障的原因、故障出现的规律及保养维护措施等进行了探讨分析。     

循环流化床锅炉返料器改造分析

本文介绍了循环流化床锅炉以及返料器存在的由于返料阀为高流率、低压头、小风量自平衡回灰阀,返料阀松动风采用一次冷风,使用过程中返料装置的配风管容易出现弯曲变形,返料不均匀造成堵塞的缺陷,返料装置的缺陷影响了锅炉的安全稳定运行,造成了一定的经济损失,为彻底解决此问题,通过对现有返料装置进行了改造,解决返料器堵塞的问题,为锅炉安全、稳定、长周期运行提供了基础保障。